Dow Rises 0.41%, Nasdaq Falls 1.07% Before Midterms; Apple and Palantir Shares Drop After Topping Estimates
A 7.63% drop in Brent crude lifted the Dow on Monday while tech stocks fell. Apple and Palantir both beat quarterly estimates, but their shares slid after hours and before Tuesday's open on worries about Apple's profit margin and Palantir's contract growth.
Two stocks beat estimates and fell anyway
Apple and Palantir both reported results that beat Wall Street's estimates on Monday, Nov. 2. Both stocks fell right afterward. Apple's revenue rose 12% to a record $114.5 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 26[4]. Palantir's revenue rose 96% to $2.313 billion, and the company raised its full-year forecast[11].
The drops came in extended trading and carried into Tuesday's premarket, on Election Day. Reports put Apple's after-hours fall between about 2.7% and 4.5%[8][9]. Reuters reported a 4.5% drop in premarket trading[10]. Palantir fell about 3% after hours, and premarket losses were reported at 6.3% by Reuters and 8% by Bloomberg[10][12][15].
So the question is why good numbers produced bad reactions. The answer sits in each company's forward-looking figures.
A split day on Wall Street
The reports landed after a day when the major indexes already pulled apart. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.41% to 51,983.98. The S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07% to 25,164.36[1].
Oil explains much of the split. Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled down 7.63% at $104.77 a barrel. That was its biggest one-day drop since July. U.S. WTI crude fell 7.36% to $96.46. Both fell on signals that the U.S. and Iran might talk about ending the war[2][3].
Cheaper oil helps consumer and industrial companies, which carry more weight in the Dow. Tech and AI stocks kept falling after last week's sell-off, and they pulled the Nasdaq down[2]. The midterms were a day away. But the moves came mostly from oil and tech, not from election news[1][2][3].
Apple's margin math
Apple's quarter was strong by almost any measure. Diluted earnings per share rose 14% to $2.10[4]. iPhone revenue rose 17% to $57.6 billion, and Mac rose 24% to $10.8 billion. Services rose 10% to $31.6 billion, while iPad fell 10% to $6.2 billion[23].
The worry was the forecast. Apple expects holiday-quarter revenue to grow 7%–10%. It also expects a gross margin of 45%–46%, down from 47.9%[5][6]. Gross margin is the share of each sales dollar Apple keeps after paying to build its products. A drop of 2 to 3 points means Apple keeps 2 to 3 fewer cents of each dollar. On roughly $114 billion in quarterly sales, one point is worth more than $1 billion.
Not all of that drop is new. The 47.9% included a one-time boost of about 1 point from tariff refunds. Without that boost, CFO Kevan Parekh put the sequential decline at about 1 point. He said it is primarily driven by higher memory prices, meaning DRAM and NAND chips. He also cited Siri AI costs, including cloud expenses and revenue that Apple spreads over a device's lifetime[6].
CEO John Ternus, who took over Sept. 1 and was reporting for the first time, called memory prices "unprecedented"[6][7]. Apple's case is that demand is healthy and the squeeze comes from a cost it can't control. It says Mac and iPad supply is tight because demand beat its expectations, not because buyers are pulling back[23]. Apple also has a clear interest in presenting lower margins as temporary and industry-wide during a CEO transition[7].
Palantir's pipeline problem
Palantir's quarter looked even stronger. It raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $8.530–$8.534 billion[14]. For the first time, U.S. commercial revenue, at $984 million, topped U.S. government revenue[11]. Net dollar retention was 165%, meaning existing customers spent 65% more than a year earlier[11].
The number that moved the stock was smaller. Total contract value (TCV) is the full dollar amount of new deals signed in a quarter. Much of it turns into revenue in later quarters, so it works as a pipeline signal. Palantir's TCV was $2.918 billion, up just 6% from a year earlier. In the second quarter, it grew 49%[14].
Skeptics read that slowdown as a warning that revenue growth could cool. Palantir's press release headline says the company is "Crushing Consensus Expectations" and leads with segment growth of 148%[11]. It doesn't mention the 6%. The company has a reason to stress the strong numbers. Its stock price assumes years of very fast growth, and raising guidance each quarter helps sustain that story[11].
Two readings of the same reports
Bulls and bears are looking at the same filings. Bullish investors say both companies beat estimates, and that selling on a beat is a short-term reaction when expectations were already high. They also cite history. CNBC reports the S&P 500 has risen an average of 14% in the six months after midterms since 1970[17]. In their view, Monday's rotation from tech into Dow stocks shows money moving within the market, not leaving it[2].
Skeptics say the market had priced both stocks for perfection, so a beat isn't enough when costs rise or new business slows[10][14]. They see Apple's memory squeeze as a direct cost of the AI build-out. AI data centers are buying huge amounts of memory chips, which raises prices for phone and PC makers[6][24]. Reuters reported the Nasdaq 100 had entered a technical correction, meaning a drop of at least 10% from its peak[10].
Memory makers see the same squeeze from the other side. Korea's Seoul Economic Daily led with Apple's warning that memory costs will keep rising into next year[18]. That matters most to makers like Samsung and SK Hynix. The South China Morning Post reports the squeeze is splitting Apple's suppliers into winners and losers[24]. One company's cost is another's revenue.
How the coverage framed it
Outlets chose different angles on the same facts. The Associated Press ran a plain table of index closes with no causal story[1]. Reuters called futures "mixed," which matches the data: Dow futures were lower, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4%, and S&P 500 futures were roughly flat[10][16].
CNBC put Ternus in its headline and called the margin forecast "weak," which is a judgment, not a measurement[5]. Fortune went further, saying "the honeymoon is over," which turns one quarter's guidance into a verdict on a leader's tenure[7]. The site 24/7 Wall St. wrote that the Dow gained "nearly 1%." The AP table shows 0.41%[20][1]. NBC News framed the day around oil and Iran talks[3].
What happens next is open. Tuesday morning's futures pointed in different directions, and the jobs report comes later this week[17]. Whether Apple's margin and Palantir's contract growth turn out to be a pause or a trend is a question the next quarters will answer.
Summary
U.S. stocks split on Monday, Nov. 2, the last trading day before the midterm elections. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.41% to 51,983.98. The S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07% to 25,164.36[1]. Oil drove much of the split. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 7.63% to $104.77 a barrel. That was its biggest one-day drop since July. It came after the U.S. and Iran signaled openness to talks on ending the war[2][3]. Cheaper oil helped consumer and industrial stocks, which carry more weight in the Dow. Tech and AI stocks kept falling after last week's sell-off, and they pulled the Nasdaq down[2].
After the close, Apple and Palantir both reported results that beat Wall Street estimates. Both stocks still fell. Apple's revenue rose 12% to a record $114.5 billion for the September quarter[4]. But Apple forecast that its gross margin will drop to 45%–46% in the holiday quarter, down from 47.9%[5][6]. That 47.9% included a benefit of about 1 percentage point from tariff refunds. Excluding that benefit, Apple's CFO put the sequential decline at about 1 point, which he attributed primarily to higher memory costs. He also cited costs tied to Siri AI[6]. Gross margin is the share of each sales dollar Apple keeps after paying to build its products. Ternus called memory-chip prices 'unprecedented'[6]. Reports of Apple's after-hours drop ranged from about 2.7% to 4.5%[8][9], and Reuters reported a 4.5% fall in premarket trading Tuesday[10]. Palantir raised its full-year revenue forecast after revenue grew 96%[11]. But new contract signings grew only 6%, and its shares fell about 3% after hours[12][13]. Premarket losses were reported at 6.3% by Reuters and 8% by Bloomberg[10][15].
The real dispute is over what these results mean. Bulls point to record sales and raised forecasts. Skeptics point to rising costs and slowing new business. Both groups are reading the same reports. On Tuesday morning, Dow futures were lower. But Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4% and S&P 500 futures were roughly flat[10][16]. So 'futures were lower' describes only part of the picture.
The Event
On Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,541.40 (down 0.51%), the Dow at 51,983.98 (up 0.41%) and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,164.36 (down 1.07%)[1]. After the close, Apple reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $114.5 billion[4]. Palantir had released third-quarter revenue of $2.313 billion and raised its full-year forecast[11]. Both stocks fell in extended trading and in premarket trading Tuesday, Election Day[10][12].
Undisputed Facts
- The S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40, the Dow rose 0.41% to 51,983.98 and the Nasdaq fell 1.07% to 25,164.36 on Nov. 2[1].
- Brent crude settled down 7.63% at $104.77, and WTI fell 7.36% to $96.46, on hopes for U.S.-Iran talks[2][3].
- Apple's revenue rose 12% to $114.5 billion and diluted earnings per share rose 14% to $2.10 for the quarter ended Sept. 26, 2026[4].
- By product, iPhone revenue rose 17% to $57.6 billion, Mac rose 24% to $10.8 billion, Services rose 10% to $31.6 billion and iPad fell 10% to $6.2 billion[23].
- Apple forecast holiday-quarter revenue growth of 7%–10% and a gross margin of 45%–46%, and it tied the lower margin mainly to memory-chip costs[5][6].
- Palantir's third-quarter revenue rose 96% to $2.313 billion, and it raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $8.530–$8.534 billion[11][14].
- Palantir's total contract value for the quarter was $2.918 billion, up 6% from a year earlier, compared with 49% growth in the second quarter[14].
- This was Apple's first earnings report under CEO John Ternus, who took over Sept. 1[7].
The Pressure
Strip away the moralizing and blame. What structural realities persist regardless of which narrative wins?
- AI demand is driving up memory prices
- AI data centers are buying huge amounts of DRAM and NAND memory. That pushes up prices for phone and PC makers like Apple, who need the same chips[6][24].
- High valuations punish 'good but not perfect' results
- When a stock price already assumes years of fast growth, a slowdown in an early signal like new contracts can matter more to investors than current revenue[14].
- Oil and Iran set the sector mix
- With Brent above $100, every sign of U.S.-Iran diplomacy shifts money between energy-sensitive Dow stocks and tech-heavy indexes[2][3][21].
Material realityApple sold more in the September quarter than in any September quarter before. But it expects to keep less of each sales dollar over the holidays because memory chips cost more[4][5][6]. Palantir's revenue nearly doubled, but new contract signings barely grew, rising 6%[14]. The Dow's gain and the Nasdaq's loss on Monday came mostly from oil's 7.63% drop and continued selling of AI stocks, not from election news[1][2][3]. On Tuesday morning, futures pointed in different directions: Dow lower, Nasdaq 100 higher, S&P 500 flat[10][16].
Narrative as a weaponThe companies are doing the most active spin. Palantir's release says it is 'crushing' expectations, and Apple stresses 'unprecedented' memory costs outside its control[6][11]. Financial media add a personality frame around Ternus and a suspense frame around the midterms[5][7][10]. Asian outlets frame Apple's costs as a supplier windfall[18]. The original version of this story also carried a tilt. Its headline said Palantir 'Raises Guidance' but left out that the stock fell. Its dek put Apple's after-hours drop at 'about 2%' when reports ranged from 2.7% to 4.5%[8][9][10]. It also said Dow futures were lower without noting that Nasdaq futures rose. None of these errors is partisan. But each one makes the day look neater than the record shows.
How Each Side Sees It
Each major actor’s view — how it frames things, its underlying incentive, and how it’s materially affected. Tap a side to read it.
Frames it asDemand is strong, and the September quarter set records for both iPhone and overall revenue[4][23]. Apple says the margin squeeze comes mainly from a cost outside its control. Parekh said that, excluding about 1 point of tariff-refund benefit in the September quarter, the sequential decline is about 1 point and is primarily driven by higher DRAM and NAND memory prices. He also cited Siri AI costs (cloud expenses and revenue deferred over device lifetimes)[6]. Apple says Mac and iPad supply is tight because demand beat its expectations, not because buyers are pulling back[23].
WhyApple wants to keep investor confidence through a CEO transition. It also wants to frame lower margins as temporary and industry-wide, not a sign of weakness[7].
Impact on themGross margin is the cut Apple keeps from each sale before paying for research, marketing and overhead. A drop from 47.9% to 45–46% means Apple keeps about 2 to 3 fewer cents of each sales dollar. Part of that drop is the one-time tariff refund benefit rolling off. On roughly $114 billion in quarterly sales, a 1-point change is worth more than $1 billion. That is why investors react to a small-sounding forecast change[5][6].
Frames it asRevenue nearly doubled, up 96%[11]. For the first time, U.S. commercial revenue ($984 million) was larger than U.S. government revenue[11]. Net dollar retention was 165%[11]. That means existing customers spent 65% more than a year earlier. The company raised its full-year guidance, its own public forecast, and called the results 'crushing consensus expectations'[11].
WhyPalantir needs to justify a stock price that assumes very fast growth for years. Raising guidance every quarter is how it keeps that story going[11].
Impact on themTotal contract value (TCV) is the full dollar amount of new deals signed in a quarter. Much of it turns into revenue only in later quarters, so it works as a pipeline signal. TCV growth slowed from 49% to 6%[14]. Skeptics read that as a sign future revenue growth could slow, and the shares fell 3% after hours and 6–8% premarket[10][12][15].
Frames it asBoth companies beat estimates. Selling on a beat is a short-term reaction to forecasts that were already high. History is also on their side: CNBC reports the S&P 500 has risen an average of 14% in the six months after midterms since 1970[17]. Monday's rotation from tech into Dow stocks, they argue, shows money moving within the market, not leaving it[2].
WhyThey want to hold or add to stock positions through the election and the jobs report later in the week[17].
Impact on themIf the AI sell-off proves short, buyers who stepped in during the dip would gain. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4% on Tuesday morning, a sign some are already doing so[10].
Frames it asThe market had priced Apple and Palantir for perfection. So a beat is not enough when costs rise or new business slows[10][14]. In this view, Apple's memory squeeze is a direct cost of the AI build-out. AI data centers are buying up memory chips and raising prices for everyone else[24]. Reuters reported the Nasdaq 100 had entered a technical correction, meaning a drop of at least 10% from its peak[10].
WhyThey want to cut exposure to high-priced tech before more evidence of slowing growth arrives[10].
Impact on themIf they are right, the gap between the Dow and the Nasdaq could widen, and heavily weighted tech stocks would keep dragging the S&P 500[2].
Frames it asApple's cost problem is these companies' pricing power. Korean coverage stressed Apple's warning that memory costs will keep rising into next year[18]. SCMP reports that the memory squeeze is splitting Apple's suppliers into winners and losers[24].
WhyMemory makers want to lock in higher prices while AI demand keeps supply tight[18][24].
Impact on themHigher memory prices raise their revenue. For phone and PC makers, the same prices mean rising costs and possibly higher retail prices for consumers[18][24].
Like this article?
The Bias Ledger average rating 3.7
The same story, as framed by outlets across the spectrum, ordered least to most biased. The bias score (1 = straight, 10 = heavily spun) is an AI assessment of that framing — click an outlet to see its track record. The tell is the word choice or omission that reveals the angle.
| Outlet | Vantage | Bias | How they frame it | The tell |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Associated Press | U.S. center | 1 | How major US stock indexes fared Monday 11/2/2026 | A plain index table with no causal story. It is the cleanest record of the closes. |
| Reuters | U.S./UK center (wire) | 2 | US stock futures mixed as Apple slides, midterms loom | 'Mixed' is accurate. It reports Nasdaq futures up while Apple and Palantir fell, avoiding the selective 'futures lower' framing. 'Loom' adds mild suspense about the election. |
| CNBC | U.S. center, market-focused | 3 | Apple's stock drops on weak margin forecast in Ternus' first earnings report | It puts the new CEO in the headline, which makes a cost-driven forecast read as a test of Ternus personally. 'Weak' is a judgment, not a measurement. |
| Seoul Economic Daily | South Korean business press | 3 | Apple Says Memory Costs Will Keep Rising Into Next Year | It picks the one line that matters most to Korean chipmakers and drops the U.S. election and index context. That focus is accurate but chosen for a home audience. |
| Fortune | U.S. center-right business | 5 | New Apple CEO John Ternus chalks up some early wins, but the honeymoon is over | 'Honeymoon is over' turns one quarter's margin guidance into a story about a leader's tenure, which goes beyond the data. |
| 24/7 Wall St. | U.S. retail-investor content site | 5 | S&P 500 Closes Down 0.5% While the Dow Gains Nearly 1% | 'Nearly 1%' overstates the Dow's 0.41% close as recorded by AP. That widens the apparent Dow-Nasdaq split. |
| Palantir | Corporate (issuer press release) | 7 | Palantir Reports Q3 2026 U.S. Comm Revenue Growth of 148% Y/Y ... Crushing Consensus Expectations | 'Crushing' is promotional. The headline leads with the fastest-growing segment and leaves out total contract value growth of 6%, the number the market reacted to. |
References
- How major US stock indexes fared Monday 11/2/2026 — Associated Press · U.S. nonprofit cooperative wire; center
- Tech Stocks Pulled the Nasdaq Lower in the Stock Market Today, November 2, 2026, as Oil Tumbled — StockTitan · Commercial market-data site; no political lean
- Oil prices slide in biggest drop since July on hope for more Iran talks — NBC News · U.S. mainstream, Comcast-owned; center-left reputation
- Apple Inc. Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 (Q4 FY2026) — Apple / SEC EDGAR · Primary source; company filing
- Apple's stock drops on weak margin forecast in Ternus' first earnings report — CNBC · U.S. business news, Versant-owned; market-centric
- Apple says memory costs and Siri AI will weigh on holiday quarter profit margins — 9to5Mac · Apple-focused enthusiast trade site
- New Apple CEO John Ternus chalks up some early wins, but the honeymoon is over — Fortune · U.S. business magazine; privately owned (Chatchaval Jiaravanon); pro-business
- Apple shares fall 4.5% after-hours despite beating revenue and earnings — NewsBytes · Indian digital news aggregator
- AAPL: Apple Stock Slides 3% After Ternus' First Earnings Beat, Holiday Margins Disappoint — TradingView · Trading platform news desk; retail-trader audience
- US stock futures mixed as Apple slides, midterms loom — Reuters · Global wire, Thomson Reuters; center
- Palantir Reports Q3 2026 U.S. Comm Revenue Growth of 148% Y/Y and Revenue Growth of 96% Y/Y; Raises FY 2026 Revenue Guidance — Palantir · Primary source; company press release, promotional
- Palantir Stock Falls over 3% Despite Strong Q3 Earnings — What Spooked Investors — TipRanks · Investor-research platform; commercial
- Why Is Palantir Technologies Stock Falling Tuesday? — Benzinga · Trader-focused financial news; commercial
- Palantir Q3 2026 Earnings: Why PLTR Stock Fell After Results — INDmoney · Indian retail-investing platform; commercial
- Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for November 3, 2026 — Bloomberg · U.S. financial news, owned by Michael Bloomberg; market-centric
- Stock Market Today, Nov. 3: Futures Mixed on Midterm Election Day; Apple and Palantir Shares Slide After Earnings — TipRanks · Investor-research platform; commercial
- Midterms, Apple earnings, jobs report. Wall Street faces a big week ahead just as investors dump tech — CNBC · U.S. business news, Versant-owned; market-centric
- Apple Says Memory Costs Will Keep Rising Into Next Year — Seoul Economic Daily · South Korean business daily; close to domestic industry
- Apple Q4 Earnings Beat; Margin Warning Hits Shares — Eastern Herald · India-based English-language digital outlet
- S&P 500 Closes Down 0.5% While the Dow Gains Nearly 1% — 24/7 Wall St. · U.S. retail-investor content site; commercial
- Oil Prices Sink as Iran Signals Talks — Rigzone · Energy-industry trade publication
- Earnings call transcript: Apple tops Q4 2026 estimates but shares fall after hours — Investing.com · Financial data portal; commercial
- iPhone sales drive Apple's fiscal Q4 to new record — The Desk · U.S. independent media/tech trade site
- Divergent results for Apple suppliers highlight memory price squeeze ahead of new iPhone — South China Morning Post · Hong Kong daily owned by Alibaba Group